New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultura land use intensity in China during 1980-2002     

LIU Chengwu LI Xiubin 《地理学报(英文版)》2006,16(3):286-292

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.  相似文献   

Large igneous provinces generated from the margins of the large low-velocity provinces in the deep mantle     

Trond H. Torsvik  Mark A. Smethurst  Kevin Burke  Bernhard Steinberger 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(3):1447-1460

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Basin-related effects on ground motion for earthquake scenarios in the Lower Rhine Embayment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael Ewald  Heiner Igel  Klaus-Günter Hinzen  Frank Scherbaum 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):197-212

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Crustal structure across the Grand Banks–Newfoundland Basin Continental Margin – II. Results from a seismic reflection profile     

K. W. Helen Lau  Keith E. Louden  Sharon Deemer  Jeremy Hall  John R. Hopper  Brian E. Tucholke  W. Steven Holbrook  Hans Christian Larsen † 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(1):157-170

New multichannel seismic reflection data were collected over a 565 km transect covering the non-volcanic rifted margin of the central eastern Grand Banks and the Newfoundland Basin in the northwestern Atlantic. Three major crustal zones are interpreted from west to east over the seaward 350 km of the profile: (1) continental crust; (2) transitional basement and (3) oceanic crust. Continental crust thins over a wide zone (∼160 km) by forming a large rift basin (Carson Basin) and seaward fault block, together with a series of smaller fault blocks eastwards beneath the Salar and Newfoundland basins. Analysis of selected previous reflection profiles (Lithoprobe 85-4, 85-2 and Conrad NB-1) indicates that prominent landward-dipping reflections observed under the continental slope are a regional phenomenon. They define the landward edge of a deep serpentinized mantle layer, which underlies both extended continental crust and transitional basement. The 80-km-wide transitional basement is defined landwards by a basement high that may consist of serpentinized peridotite and seawards by a pair of basement highs of unknown crustal origin. Flat and unreflective transitional basement most likely is exhumed, serpentinized mantle, although our results do not exclude the possibility of anomalously thinned oceanic crust. A Moho reflection below interpreted oceanic crust is first observed landwards of magnetic anomaly M4, 230 km from the shelf break. Extrapolation of ages from chron M0 to the edge of interpreted oceanic crust suggests that the onset of seafloor spreading was ∼138 Ma (Valanginian) in the south (southern Newfoundland Basin) to ∼125 Ma (Barremian–Aptian boundary) in the north (Flemish Cap), comparable to those proposed for the conjugate margins.  相似文献   

Interpretation of subhorizontal crustal reflections by metamorphic and rheologic effects in the eastern part of the Pannonian Basin     

Károly Posgay  Tamás Bodoky  Zoltán Hajnal  Tivadar M. Tóth  Tamás Fancsik  Endre Heged&#;s  Attila Cs. Kovács  Ern&#; Takács 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(1):187-203

The geologic origin of subhorizontal reflections, often observed in crustal seismic sections, was investigated by establishing metamorphic facies and strength of rocks in depth, and correlating these properties to seismic reflection sections from eastern Hungary. Estimation of the depths of metamorphic mineral stability zones utilized the principles developed by Fyfe et al. and known geothermal data of the area. The strength versus depth profile was derived by relating local seismic P -wave interval velocities to Meissner et al. 's activation energy. The results show that the series of subhorizontal reflections, observed in the Pannonian Basin, are a consequence of combined metamorphic and rheologic changes in depths. The synthesis of the integrated data set suggests that the retrograde alteration of the pre-Tertiary basement above the percolation threshold was made possible by the softening effect of shear zones and their water-conducting capacity. The subhorizontal reflections of highest energy, of the consolidated crust below the percolation threshold, originate in the depths of greenschist, amphibolite and granulite metamorphic mineral facies, which were formed in geothermal and pressure conditions similar to those existing today. These results imply the overprint of earlier (Variscan) metamorphic sequences of the crust by more recent retrograde metamorphic processes.  相似文献   

S-wave velocity structure, mantle xenoliths and the upper mantle beneath the Kaapvaal craton   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Angela Marie Larson  J. Arthur Snoke  David E. James 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(1):171-186

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Traction image method for irregular free surface boundaries in finite difference seismic wave simulation   总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16  

Wei Zhang  Xiaofei Chen 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(1):337-353

In this study, we propose a new numerical method, named as Traction Image method, to accurately and efficiently implement the traction-free boundary conditions in finite difference simulation in the presence of surface topography. In this algorithm, the computational domain is discretized by boundary-conforming grids, in which the irregular surface is transformed into a 'flat' surface in computational space. Thus, the artefact of staircase approximation to arbitrarily irregular surface can be avoided. Such boundary-conforming gridding is equivalent to a curvilinear coordinate system, in which the first-order partial differential velocity-stress equations are numerically updated by an optimized high-order non-staggered finite difference scheme, that is, DRP/opt MacCormack scheme. To satisfy the free surface boundary conditions, we extend the Stress Image method for planar surface to Traction Image method for arbitrarily irregular surface by antisymmetrically setting the values of normal traction on the grid points above the free surface. This Traction Image method can be efficiently implemented. To validate this new method, we perform numerical tests to several complex models by comparing our results with those computed by other independent accurate methods. Although some of the testing examples have extremely sloped topography, all tested results show an excellent agreement between our results and those from the reference solutions, confirming the validity of our method for modelling seismic waves in the heterogeneous media with arbitrary shape topography. Numerical tests also demonstrate the efficiency of this method. We find about 10 grid points per shortest wavelength is enough to maintain the global accuracy of the simulation. Although the current study is for 2-D P-SV problem, it can be easily extended to 3-D problem.  相似文献   

Shear wave splitting changes associated with the 2001 volcanic eruption on Mt Etna     

Francesca Bianco  Luciano Scarf&#;  Edoardo Del Pezzo  Domenico Patanè 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(2):959-967

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H/V ratio: a tool for site effects evaluation. Results from 1-D noise simulations   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

Sylvette Bonnefoy-Claudet  Cécile Cornou  Pierre-Yves Bard  Fabrice Cotton  Peter Moczo  Jozef Kristek  Donat Fäh 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(2):827-837

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